Episode Transcript
[00:00:10] Speaker A: Hello, everybody. Welcome back to Right to the Source. My name is Robin Harrison and I'm here, as ever, with the Vic Reeves to my Bob Mortimer. Mortimer, Mr. Ed Birkin. Ed, how are you on this fine sunny day?
[00:00:26] Speaker B: I am well, thank you, Robin.
I mean, Bob Mortimer was, was the best. He's just brilliant, isn't he?
[00:00:33] Speaker A: Oh, he's, he's great, isn't he? Vic Reeves is really good too. And like Vic Reeves was the famous one at first.
[00:00:42] Speaker B: If you ever watch. Would I lie to you?
[00:00:45] Speaker A: Yeah, I have done.
[00:00:47] Speaker B: When he's a guest on that is Brilliant and stuff like he does his own. He. He does his own dentistry to himself and stuff like that. But then I watched them when they go fishing and that was a bit less interesting, if I'm honest.
[00:00:58] Speaker A: It was.
[00:00:58] Speaker B: And I'm a guy who owns a lot of fishing rods.
[00:01:00] Speaker A: Yeah.
But I like how you said you won a lot of fishing rods, not that you go fishing a lot.
[00:01:07] Speaker B: I don't go fishing much. I actually went last weekend and we were there for less than half an hour.
It was also no surprise that no one else was there. It was boiling hot, middle of the day, worst time to go fishing. I had no idea what flies to use. So we then went to the fishmongers, bought some really nice prawns and went back and had a glass of wine and cooked some prawns up.
[00:01:27] Speaker A: Fair enough.
[00:01:28] Speaker B: It's all very civilized.
[00:01:29] Speaker A: But I mean, I thought, I thought part of the appeal was just basically sitting by a lake and nailing cans.
[00:01:35] Speaker B: Yeah, well, we weren't drinking and the other guy literally after 45 seconds said, I just don't have the patience for this today. So after another half hour of him just sat on the cooler, just on his phone and going, I'm bored. It kind of took away from the enjoyment somewhat
[00:01:53] Speaker A: and, well, I mean, congratulations are in order because H2 has new corporate overlords.
[00:01:59] Speaker B: We do. We do have corporate overlords, Berkeley. Thank you.
Weird working for someone again after 10 years.
[00:02:08] Speaker A: But they, I mean, someone has to impose order on things.
[00:02:12] Speaker B: Yeah.
They were clearly very successful in their last deal. So I'm excited what all the plans have talked about. There's going to be. I think it's very exciting for the subscribers in terms of what we can do and improve what is quite frankly, not a great user experience on a website, as people know, but new product as well. So. Yeah, I mean, ask me again in six months time if they haven't fired me by then and I may have a different view but at the moment it's exciting. So thank you very much.
[00:02:40] Speaker A: Yeah, it's very exciting.
[00:02:42] Speaker B: And you know what's not exciting in my view?
[00:02:45] Speaker A: What's not exciting.
[00:02:46] Speaker B: And I'm, I'm a bar humbug with this. Okay, super excited about going up next month to watch Sheffield Wednesday at home against Bradford City, which will be terrible, but the World Cup, I mean, I haven't watched much in fairness, but it just, everything about it just seems so bad. And watch like Spain played. I've watched two, two half hours of, of it. Okay, one cares. Last half hour of Spain, France and last half hour of England, Argentina and quite frankly, like Spain were just all over France and very much deserved to win. And I think France were disappointing.
[00:03:23] Speaker A: Yeah, France were terrible in that game. Really, really disappointing because that team has played so well and it's, it's just quite a, like, largely a likable team. You know, it's just great players are all playing until this point with a degree of kind of freedom, kind of like joie de viv.
And then it just, yeah, just awful. And you know, England, I, you know, it's like I've watched, I've watched a fair bit the World cup, like it was in, was on holiday in France last week, so I watched the France Morocco game, which, you know, it's, it's a great, it's great to watch these games and you know, in their native countries. That was like, that was a lot of fun.
But it's, I mean, it's, there's too much of it.
There's a lot of games, there's too many games.
And then, because I think I've said it in a podcast before, one of, one of the really good things about the World cup, there's an element of discovery because you watch teams that you've never, you know, you've never considered watching before.
[00:04:27] Speaker B: But on that point, and you know, I was very much against all these dead rubbers, but Cape Verde, you know.
[00:04:33] Speaker A: Exactly. No, exactly. It's incredible. I mean, like, Scotland were obviously rubbish, but as ever, our fans were great.
[00:04:41] Speaker B: Yeah, Scott McTominay, I was hoping he was going to light up the World Cup a bit.
[00:04:46] Speaker A: He didn't, didn't do anything in the
[00:04:49] Speaker B: last match against Argentina, which we won't talk about, it was deserved. I mean, even though Argentina have pretty much been, I, I, I think there's no smoke without fire with some of the favoritism stuff, especially against Egypt.
But they just, and okay, they, from what I've seen, you know, some Pretty underhand tactics early on in the England match which got ignored. But England with the architects of their own downfall.
[00:05:11] Speaker A: So, yeah, I mean, yeah, it was, it was very scrappy and you felt that Argentina were just really kind of up for a fight.
And I mean there are some great, just agricultural tackles in that. You know, it's this one that should, that should favoring.
[00:05:29] Speaker B: Anyway, I'm sure there's loads of podcasts talking about football.
[00:05:31] Speaker A: Yeah. All right.
[00:05:33] Speaker B: I want to talk about music. I want to talk about music.
[00:05:35] Speaker A: Music.
[00:05:36] Speaker B: You're into music, aren't you?
[00:05:37] Speaker A: I, I listen to. I listen to it, yes.
[00:05:40] Speaker B: Okay. What song's this from?
Let it never be said the romance is dead because there's so little else occupy my head.
There is nothing I need except to function and breathe. Breathe. But I'm not really fussed. Doesn't matter
[00:05:59] Speaker A: My Way by Frank Sinatra
[00:06:02] Speaker B: if I stop playing something, will it come through on?
[00:06:06] Speaker A: I'm not sure. Let's try it.
I mean, no, no, I can't.
[00:06:17] Speaker B: Okay. But I'm not really first.
Doesn't matter to me.
Ruby. Ruby, Ruby, Ruby.
[00:06:30] Speaker A: Oh, that same a.
The Kaiser Chiefs.
[00:06:37] Speaker B: Yeah. I mean this is. This, this link is falling flat on its face. But why, why did I choose that song?
[00:06:46] Speaker A: I mean, something to do with rubies.
You've got Ruby.
[00:06:51] Speaker B: Ruby is the 40 year wedding anniversary thing.
[00:06:57] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:06:58] Speaker B: And this is our.
[00:07:01] Speaker A: Oh, I see what you're going for. Yes. Okay. 40th episode.
[00:07:05] Speaker B: Okay. God, that was a painful link.
[00:07:08] Speaker A: Hey, that was agonizing. Bloody hell.
[00:07:11] Speaker B: I mean, if anyone thought that this was staged, they can see right there that we have no collaboration prior to going on air.
[00:07:19] Speaker A: No, it's. Everything we discuss is literally agreed in about 20 seconds before we actually hit record.
So yes, it is our 40th episode, which is astounding really.
[00:07:32] Speaker B: Some would say 39 too many. But we're going to prove them wrong. So I'm going to revert back to the World cup and give you a quick statistic.
Do you know that World cup handle in Montana is up 541%? Sun up World Cups soccer handle is up 541% year on year.
Which isn't really a great statistic because no one was betting on soccer last year, but a new one between Jan and May. New York handle. Mobile sports wagering handle. What do you think the year on
[00:08:02] Speaker A: year growth was between January and May?
[00:08:06] Speaker B: Yeah, average relatively.
Jan to May this year versus Jan to May last year.
[00:08:15] Speaker A: Just trying to think New York actually with the Knicks.
That's Going to give it a decent donet wind of baseball.
Well, I mean obviously no New York teams doing anything in the NFL.
And to me, when did MLB started around kind of April, May.
[00:08:40] Speaker B: He's gonna get it wrong. So just give it, give a number. Let's put people out of misery. Up flattish down 1% right now during the World Cup.
Up 48% year on year.
So it's against a quiet period but there's been a lot of traction. Okay.
Prediction markets, you know, they are smashing it though now. You know, most people know my views on prediction markets. They're taking probably mid single digit, low to mid single dig away from the operators. You know, handle is different to volume. They're doing most of their stuff in markets where there's no competition. Texas, California, a huge amount of their revenues. But in terms of if we look at what they were trending before our estimate prediction market handle equivalent versus US regulated handle across the whole of US is around 14% prediction market. Now that drops to about 5% when looking at the states with legal sports books.
[00:09:39] Speaker A: Right.
[00:09:39] Speaker B: That's doubled to 27 and 1011 respectively. So you know, they are, I think they're getting more casual customer and they're definitely taking a lot of share in the World Cup.
But put it into context, you know, Kalshi is everywhere. Okay. All the hoardings, all.
[00:09:56] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:09:56] Speaker B: I speak in son in the US last night and he said he's watched quite a lot of football and he's not seen a single ad for sportsbooks. So they're not advertising at all. And that makes sense because if you're a sports book, why are you wasting ad money on trying to get soccer fans when next month you're going to start, you know, really powering ahead of the new NFL season, which is worth so much more. So I know that the VC funded prediction markets, you know, have the funds to do this but in a way it's, let's not get carried away. It's no surprise that if you've got Kalshi, you know, quite frankly sponsoring the World cup and you've got sportsbooks who are just keeping their powder dry because they'd be stupid to be really spending it now, you're going to see this spike. But you know, it is, it is doubling. It's, you know, the share is.
[00:10:43] Speaker A: Well, I suppose it's whether these customers actually stick around after this, you know, this kind of a. So I feel weird calling it soccer, you know, soccer, soccer driven spike.
[00:10:58] Speaker B: It's because of all our US listeners Well, yeah.
[00:11:02] Speaker A: And part of the global. The global audience.
[00:11:05] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah.
Right.
[00:11:08] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:11:08] Speaker B: Let's talk about something else. Do you want to know what else is happening in the world right now?
Well, I mean, lots. I'll be more specific. In the uk.
[00:11:16] Speaker A: In the uk, the evolution.
[00:11:21] Speaker B: Well, I was thinking we're getting a new Prime Minister again.
[00:11:24] Speaker A: We are, we are.
[00:11:26] Speaker B: And I don't know how Many is that?
[00:11:29] Speaker A: Seven in 10 years.
Yeah, yeah.
[00:11:33] Speaker B: And.
[00:11:33] Speaker A: And we've got a by election involving a Ben.
[00:11:38] Speaker B: Yeah, we do. I forgot that. Yes. So for those people who are not o with UK politics.
[00:11:45] Speaker A: Yes.
[00:11:46] Speaker B: Step down in protest of people asking about his donations to him. And there's a by election in his constituenc and a bin is standing, you know, to try and win the. The piece. How many isn't this is like fifth election, the bins gone?
[00:12:03] Speaker A: I think so, because he started out as Lord Buckethead, which was actually a character for something else. So then he created Count Ben Face.
[00:12:11] Speaker B: So just. It is a real person, but he just goes around with a bin over his head.
[00:12:17] Speaker A: Yeah. I mean, I think is quite. I'm quite enjoying a lot of people suggesting that a vote against the Ben, as in the man with the bin in his head, is a vote against the establishment, because the Ben or the man with the bin in his head is considered by these people the establishment candidate.
[00:12:39] Speaker B: What Count bin faces the.
[00:12:41] Speaker A: Yes. So Lawrence Fox, you know of the Fox acting dynasty.
[00:12:46] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:12:47] Speaker A: He feels that, you know, the man from the. The, you know, like the Fox family, like Day of the Jackal.
Loads of. Loads of stuff. Stage, screen, all that.
No, no, she's a different Fox, as far as I know. Yeah, yeah, yeah, she's a different.
[00:13:03] Speaker B: We won't go down that route, but
[00:13:05] Speaker A: yeah, all right, all right. Yeah, yeah. It's not 2003. We're not going to talk like that.
Yeah. So, you know, the Fox acting dynasty, he feels that the man with the bin in his head is part of the establishment. Now, I don't want to get into politics, but he's a man with a bin in his head.
Yeah. I mean, with.
Well, I mean, one of the things, actually. I mean, I think there's kind of an interesting thing to kind of raise here. I mean, you know, like, Andy Burnham is who is going to be our. Like our.
[00:13:41] Speaker B: Our new political overlord, our new unelected Prime Minister.
[00:13:47] Speaker A: He's. I mean, half of them were unelected. I don't think.
[00:13:50] Speaker B: I don't think recently.
[00:13:52] Speaker A: Yeah. I don't think Liz Truss was Elected.
[00:13:55] Speaker B: That worked out. Yeah, that.
[00:13:57] Speaker A: That went well. She was. Sorry, she was speaking to a room of four yesterday at some sort of conference.
Yeah.
[00:14:06] Speaker B: So what's his view? What's. I know he hasn't talked massively about it, but as the journalists. I know you say you're not a journalist now, you're not middle management, but actually maybe you're scraping your ways up to the higher echelons of management. But anyway, your journalistic background or your team of journalists, what. What's their view on.
On the Burnham's kind of policy towards this? Because my very limited understanding is he's, if anything, edging more negative and looking at increased taxes around properties and stuff like that.
[00:14:40] Speaker A: Yeah, I mean, like, it's. It's kind of skewing a bit more negative. What I think is potentially interesting is the fact that he's talked about, you know, kind of like devolving more power, like, rather than having everything, you know, in the Westminster bubble.
And obviously that's going to be more kind of at a low, you know, that's going to be probably more kind of hitting the brick and mortar establishments, but it could, depending on how far they go in. For example, gambling regulation, like, think about kind of like duties, you know, kind of additional taxes, potential restrictions that could
[00:15:19] Speaker B: have an impact, I think, given what, how much money he wants to spend and what taxes they can't raise.
He said they've got the rules they're keeping. So no increase in VAT income tax or employee national insurance. They've already increased employer national insurance.
Capital gains tax will go up and other stuff. I just see fob teas as a very easy target for them. And I think it's another. I think the industry should be concerned. At least the traditional book isn't online, but.
[00:15:48] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:15:49] Speaker B: Anyway, you talked about evolution.
[00:15:51] Speaker A: Yes. Should we talk about evolution? Well, there's a few things in evolution.
All right. Do you want to start with the Jonas, stay in the uk?
[00:16:01] Speaker B: Sure.
[00:16:01] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:16:03] Speaker B: Where did the first bit of evolution occur? Actually was in Africa somewhere, the water.
Is that how evolution worked, anyway?
[00:16:15] Speaker A: Yeah, well, I mean, I think the fate, like the. The amoeba will have turned into something that will have turned into a fish and then. So, I mean, the first thing happened in the water, but when it kind of came on land, I mean, I don't know, it's like record keeping from that time was, you know, relatively, you know, kind of sketchy. So I don't think we've got an exact idea of when that happened.
[00:16:38] Speaker B: Well, prime earliest primates in North America and Europe actually.
[00:16:43] Speaker A: Well, I mean that's primates. I mean we had dinosaurs before.
[00:16:46] Speaker B: Yeah, I know, yeah.
[00:16:47] Speaker A: Also.
[00:16:48] Speaker B: Oh, that guy from Jurassic Park.
[00:16:50] Speaker A: Yeah, RIP Sam Neill.
Yeah, I love Jurassic Park. Phenomenal film.
[00:16:56] Speaker B: So they were in all of the earth land masses are joined together as a supercontinent called Pangea.
[00:17:03] Speaker A: Yes.
So it could have.
We don't really know where it could have happened.
[00:17:08] Speaker B: Argentina, some of the earliest forms in Tanzania and Zimbabwe. So yeah.
[00:17:11] Speaker A: Okay. Anyway, anyway, so Evolution agreed a regulatory settlement of 4.75 million with a gambling commission.
[00:17:23] Speaker B: 4, 4.
[00:17:27] Speaker A: When was it started? Because I remember it was just before Christmas. It was one of these stories that come out when you're trying to wind down. It's like, oh God, got to get someone on that. So I think kind of December 2024 and it was basically looking at whether its content was available on illegal websites. And I think it found two operators offering unlicensed operators offering Evolution games across six sites.
Evolution said, you know, has come out and said that Evolution stance was that there was no kind of like broad evidence of you know, games being, you know, found its content being found on illegal sites.
[00:18:09] Speaker B: But it did, let me guess, it was through third party aggregators and it wasn't their fault.
[00:18:16] Speaker A: Well, so it claims that they actively look to evade restrictions that it input in place and that you know, these, these say, you know, kind of like supply agreements have now been now being bend entirely.
So.
[00:18:36] Speaker B: So they settled there.
[00:18:37] Speaker A: Yeah, so they settled there.
[00:18:38] Speaker B: It wasn't their fault and settled anyway.
[00:18:41] Speaker A: Which isn't business as usual a profit I think for Q1.25 was down as, as a result of kind of ring fencing, actions taken. So basically making sure that you know, in, in the, in regulated markets their games are not available through any unlicensed suppliers and that hit profitability in Q1.
[00:19:06] Speaker B: Effectively doing what they said they'd always done and should have been doing anyway of just supplying the legal markets where they operate.
[00:19:12] Speaker A: I mean I couldn't possibly comment, but yeah.
So Q2H1's out today. Net revenue down a bit.
But interestingly it seems to have been off its acquisition of Galaxy Gaming in the US like it was, it was a small deal. Nevada based company a.
I have 5 million in my head but I feel that might be a bit too small. So I'm not sure if that was, you know, exactly it but the agreed closing period expires today, 17th of July and then after that they can choose to terminate the agreement. And Evolution said spent two years in this Put in significant time, effort and resources for the administration.
But then it says Galaxy is a great company but due to its size, transactions, not significant.
[00:20:08] Speaker B: $85 million.
[00:20:10] Speaker A: 85 million. That was it.
[00:20:12] Speaker B: Small deal, but you know, from this, this analysis, massive strategic implications, secure critical IP for its live casino and the 131 licenses Galaxy had worldwide, including 28 states, would provide evolution with a regulatory fast track and physical footprint in land based casinos. So yeah, they're saying, you know, it doesn't matter because it's a small acquisition but actually, you know, if they spent two years on it, there's a reason, you know, that they wanted it. So is there anything, you know, being a wordsmith that you are, is there anything that you can read into what they've said that suggests why it may have collapsed at such a late stage?
[00:20:49] Speaker A: I wouldn't have even say it's a late stage. It's just a deal that's been dragging on for a long time. I mean, look, as part of this process they will have had to get licensed in Nevada. Nevada is tricky. Like you think about what happened to what was then known as gvc.
They couldn't because of, you know, because of other kind of investigations or former business dealings.
They essentially had to get a rolling license rather than, you know, the kind of full long term approval which was kind of like periodically reviewed.
So that process, you know, is like reading between the lines. I mean like I've not listened to the earnings call, so I'm purely speculating at this time. I would say that those kind of processes are potentially tricky.
[00:21:43] Speaker B: Yeah. And you know, they've got, I suppose they've got the playtech evolution, things still dragging on.
[00:21:47] Speaker A: So you know, things get back and, and, and just. Sorry, just the end of the, you know, kind of like CEO, a.
What would even call it, CEO. Comments for the quarter.
Yeah, commentary. So just an oddly poetic quote.
[00:22:07] Speaker B: Okay. I mean I've 10 years in banking, I can't say that many of the CEO's comments in earnings releases would be poetic. This seems to be pretty, pretty dull.
[00:22:17] Speaker A: And well, I mean I remember remember Ralph Topping when he was William Hill CEO describing a QR code as like a prison tattoo, which I always quite liked. You know, he always had a good turn of phrase.
But. So Martin Carlison sums up his commentary saying to conclude the road is almost never straight, but what matters is that we're moving forward.
Some curves are harder than others, but they can also be fun.
And the same goes for evolution. And then it, you know, continues the usual thing Pleased. The progress. Thanks. The great work, energy, commitment for everyone at the team. Looking forward to the rest of the year.
[00:23:00] Speaker B: But that's Curves can be fun. Yeah. For people who enjoy roller coasters, which I'm not one of them, but, you know, most people who, you know, are shareholders don't want a roller coaster ride. They actually want straight.
[00:23:16] Speaker A: Yeah. They weren't boring. They want, you know, kind of like motorway, you know, sporadic traffic.
[00:23:23] Speaker B: Yeah. I mean, let's look at the share price. I mean, so it's down half a percent, but if you look in the
[00:23:32] Speaker A: last
[00:23:34] Speaker B: one year, I mean it's gone from 880 Swedish kroner, it was down at 530, now it's up at 6 at 90.
I mean, I know all gambling companies have been hit, most or most of them over this time, but you know, I don't think that telling people a roller coaster of share price can be fun is really the way to like, come on, guys. Unless you're a hedge fund, in which case they love peaks and troughs.
So. But lots time I was reading yesterday that Netflix is down 40% this year.
[00:24:07] Speaker A: Interesting.
[00:24:08] Speaker B: And it got hit 9% yesterday because I think they reported 12.86 billion of revenue and the market was expecting 13 billion. I was like, that's a pretty big hit on the share price for Naru Metas. Yeah.
Just like a solid subscription business they're blaming it on.
I mean, this is so off topic, but things like Meta having the reels, Instagram reels and now you can put on the big screen so that people are going to have.
Because apparently the modern population doesn't even have the ability to watch the kind of 30 minute episodes on Netflix.
They now only want the kind of two minute reels.
[00:24:44] Speaker A: They want it broken up into reels. So that mean that Netflix are going to put out shows as reels where you get everything in a 30 second
[00:24:53] Speaker B: blast and then probably out between. It's just sad how little people's concentration is.
[00:24:58] Speaker A: But anyway, I mean, look, films are getting too long.
[00:25:01] Speaker B: Yeah, that's true. To find a 90 minute film you have to go proper old school.
[00:25:05] Speaker A: Yeah. 90 minutes, kind of like beginning, middle and end. Done. Go and do something else in your life.
[00:25:12] Speaker B: I may have said this on a previous one. I watched Tom Cruise's breakout film the other week. I mentioned this last week.
[00:25:17] Speaker A: His breakout film.
[00:25:19] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:25:20] Speaker A: Was that Days of Thunder?
[00:25:22] Speaker B: No.
[00:25:23] Speaker A: Risky Business.
[00:25:24] Speaker B: Risky Business, yeah.
[00:25:25] Speaker A: Yeah. That's a great film.
[00:25:26] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:25:26] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:25:27] Speaker B: Because I'm now going proper old school in the films just to find a 90 minute one.
[00:25:30] Speaker A: But yeah, 90 minutes, it's all you need. It's all you need.
[00:25:35] Speaker B: Remember when football used to be 90 minutes?
[00:25:38] Speaker A: Yeah, but well I mean then you need, then you've got half time, then you've got added time.
Now you've got the powerade hydration break.
[00:25:48] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:25:49] Speaker A: Soon you'll have the halftime concert featuring Pitbull.
You'll have the, you know, the multi ball period where you have.
[00:26:03] Speaker B: Do you know the average time that a ball is in play in the Premier League last season? Out of 90 minutes.
And bear in mind they also now have like some of the added time goes on. There's probably about 10 minutes extra.
[00:26:18] Speaker A: I didn't find that.
[00:26:18] Speaker B: So out of 100 minutes.
[00:26:19] Speaker A: Okay, so out of 100 minutes, a 36 minutes.
[00:26:27] Speaker B: Okay. I mean that would be ridiculous. But no, 54, 55 minutes. So like that's 45% of the time the ball isn't being kicked.
Like.
Yeah.
Anyway, what else we talk about, Robin? Or is that it? We wrapping it up with a pretty quick, quick one. Now we're back. It's only 27 minutes in. Or is it? What else is. Oh, I know what's been interesting. You don't think this is interesting, but I do.
[00:26:52] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:26:52] Speaker B: Germany has I think quietly increased the slot maximum slot state from €1 to between 3 and €5. Yeah.
Which I think I know you said it's too late because you know, people have already gone and you know that's true and that it's still a low limit, but it's not. So if you look at what the UK GC said and this is percent of slot stakes. So I don't know whether it's the number of stakes rather than the volume. It's Obviously, you know, 101 one pound steaks versus one 100 pound steaks. You know, is that actually 99, just over 99 of, of one house steaks or is it 50? Depending on if you're taking the. The value or the volume.
But the commission's data showed more than 87% of slot stakes are up to 1 pound. Okay, 96% up to 2 and 99 up to 5 pounds.
So you know, having the kind of 3 Euro 5. Okay. It's not going to help. The high rollers are going nowhere near it.
I don't necessarily agree with slot stakes, you know, limits, but it's a material change from €1. I really, really think it is, it
[00:28:08] Speaker A: is a material change. But then you've also got minimum spin speeds, stuff like that.
So it's like, so it's. You can, you can play more, but then you're having to wait a set amount of time. It just, you know, I just feel this was. This would have been something like a year or two in.
This is a nice kind of decisive action to make the market more competitive.
And it's good that it's happening, but everything is happening very gradually and I think that's.
[00:28:43] Speaker B: It's better than not happening or going the wrong direction.
[00:28:46] Speaker A: I mean, I mean, what's going on. It's usually, it's usually me is trying to inject a note of positivity and you're doing the nature.
[00:28:53] Speaker B: We've been critical Germany, but if you look at most of the markets, they're getting, you know, more negative and not in a bad way. You know, Brazil's tightened up its advertising laws and. And clunts through them. It's like all of that makes sense. Like there's nothing that bad on that. It's just, you know, being a bit more responsible.
But most things are kind of going away from operators and you know, Germany or the industry in Germany just had terrible legislation and you know, if they're now starting to listen and shift things a bit slowly in the right direction, I think we need to be grateful.
[00:29:25] Speaker A: And it's pulled one back. Yeah, it's got, it's got a late goal still a bit of time to play in the game and they just need another five or seven goals to get back level.
[00:29:39] Speaker B: Right. As to finish for me.
[00:29:42] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:29:43] Speaker B: A little bit more data.
[00:29:45] Speaker A: All right.
[00:29:45] Speaker B: And just like actual World cup which seems to be going on forever, our analysis of this World cup is going to continue to go on forever because we're going back to that. So I noticed that your Steve Sidwell of I gaming business wrote, I think it was him who wrote it, wrote an article about entain who said the World cup will be worth 1% to them.
[00:30:09] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:30:10] Speaker B: So let's play a game of how much the June figures in Sweden and then we'll do Taiwan. But let's say start with Sweden have gone up year on year in June. And I believe this is Svenska spell rather than the actual whole market.
But so there's two. Two figures. One is the betting and casino. How much was. Well, right, okay. Sports betting and casino actually went up 11 year on year in the quarter as a whole. Okay, okay. But the. When Men's World Cup. So how much was in June alone? How much was the sport and casino business up and how much was the sports Betting business alone up.
[00:31:07] Speaker A: So sporting casinos, online sports betting, retail
[00:31:12] Speaker B: sports betting online as well. So just sports betting Alex. Sports betting.
[00:31:18] Speaker A: When did Sweden. Sweden made it to the round of 32, did they not?
[00:31:24] Speaker B: I didn't watch so.
[00:31:26] Speaker A: Okay, I think they did. They were managed by Graham Potter.
[00:31:31] Speaker B: Yes, they were, yeah.
[00:31:32] Speaker A: He manage Chelsea was it Brighton where
[00:31:36] Speaker B: he kind of did the kind of breakout job?
[00:31:39] Speaker A: I think so, yeah.
I would say it's up around 15%.
[00:31:50] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:31:52] Speaker A: And then for sports betting overall I would say and I think I'm thinking of Denmark figures where it was a bit previously. So I would say sports betting alone is up maybe 20%.
Right.
[00:32:09] Speaker B: So the business areas revenue is up 24% in June and sports betting was up 135%. So sports is really pushing it. So if we translate that to entane and I know there's a lot of gaming led brands there, you know and just as with Sweden it's mainly getting you know, 135% up in sports but that only 24% overall because they're mainly but 24% in one month.
Just taking seasonality out of it make it easy. That would suggest kind of 2% up over for the year by 12 months versus Entain's 1%. But then you've got July as well so it's kind of implying you know run rate of 4% contribution maybe a bit less in July because of fewer games in Sweden around but 3% and I'd say that seems a lot fairer than you know I think the 1% comment by and tame just seems very low.
And then Taiwan lottery a sports lottery high stream fig 1 record up 60 year on year which again you know best that but that's yeah pretty good. And that was with a steady GGR margin month on month. So they didn't have any gtr. Well I assume the lottery is probably parimutal anyway so. But yeah, so we're looking at these, you know. So the World cup is you know having you know, material up. Let's say we saw it in the, in the U.S. yeah, yeah, obviously because they're in that market seeing Europe even in Asia. Tyrone didn't have a team, you know it's a sports lottery but you know they're still seeing strong growth. So as much as I think that the World Cup's been tarnished and haven't watched it, it is, it is generating the, the betting volumes we want and we'd forecast 60 billion of turnover of which 2.9 billion in the US from the at least the data we're seeing from Montana, weekly data, which is tiny, admittedly, but they spit out sports and look at some New York stuff. I think they're going to be well ahead of that, to be honest. I think.
[00:34:18] Speaker A: Well, I suppose part of it is they have a lot more games.
I think there was something. I think it was like after the round of 32 more games had been played than were played in the entirety of Qatar in 2022, something mad like that.
[00:34:37] Speaker B: But as you said with prediction markets, will they keep the customers? And we've always said this isn't about revenue. Yes, operators would like to have a higher margin, but quite frankly, it's about customer acquisition.
If they have some bad results that goes against them, more money in the customer's pocket, they'll probably get it back over time.
So Sports betting up 135%.
Sweden, total revenue up 24%. Newly registered customers. Yeah, this is newly registered customers rather than active customers, but that was up 340%.
So, you know, it is, as we've said, you know, this should be viewed as a customer acquisition tool. And quite frankly, even if it had been a terrible World cup on margin, which I don't think it has been at all, you know, the markets may not like it, but anyone who knows about gambling would go, if you're getting. If you're getting the customers and you're getting the stakes, then who cares about the short term bit if Kane has scored a hat trick or whatever?
[00:35:46] Speaker A: Well, this is it. I mean, I think.
I think Kresten started in the industry. People have talked about these major sporting events as acquisition drivers rather than kind of revenue boosts.
So I think that. I think that all makes sense. And we're recording this ahead of the final on Sunday, which is between Spain and Argentina.
[00:36:11] Speaker B: So given this definitely won't be out, I can't bring myself to say, well done, Argentina. So I can record one ending which says, well done, Spain. Fantastically deserved.
And you didn't, you know, even make any political statements.
That's brilliant. And you can do an ending for if Argentina win.
[00:36:32] Speaker A: Okay. Yeah, let's do that. All right.
[00:36:35] Speaker B: Well, I've just done mine.
[00:36:36] Speaker A: Okay. Well, you know, Argentina, I mean, two World Cups retaining the World Cup. I mean, is there any doubt that Messi is the greatest footballer of all time at this point?
[00:36:48] Speaker B: Yes, I think that's still up for debate personally. But anyway.
[00:36:52] Speaker A: All right, who. Who is then? Who is?
[00:36:55] Speaker B: Well, I don't say of all time because I didn't see, you know, I think. I think it is hard to compare the likes of Maradona and Pele and stuff. And you know, didn't see. I mean, even. I know no one's going to really put him in that bracket, but, you know, still heard about George Best in his prime. I suppose you can also argue, you know, performance versus, you know, is someone more talented if they're just getting pissed every night and stuff like that. But I just think Messi is unbelievably talented, clearly.
[00:37:23] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:37:23] Speaker B: And. And he's very good at what, his dribbling, scoring. I. I just think Ronaldo is a better.
He has everything. Left foot, right foot, header strength. I mean, Messi has strength.
[00:37:36] Speaker A: But the thing is, I think that
[00:37:39] Speaker B: said, and I don't like Messi at all, but the fact that I think it's close and actually they're comparable and I'm so biased towards Ronaldo means that Messi probably is better.
[00:37:49] Speaker A: Yeah, I mean, hard to like.
I find Ronaldo equally hard to like, but. I'm messing.
[00:37:58] Speaker B: Someone tell me he did like 2.
Two sprints in one game or something.
He's literally just. Just walking football. But I think it helps when he has a.
The thing with Messi is he's always played in a really, really good team that's been built around him.
[00:38:14] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:38:15] Speaker B: And then, okay, he didn't. He hasn't got that LA Galaxy, but he's playing in a league that no offense to America is quite frankly, very much below his ability.
[00:38:23] Speaker A: Okay. Inter Miami, I think, is it?
[00:38:25] Speaker B: Yeah, same to Miami.
So I don't know. It's. I just think he hasn't tested himself in the way Ronaldo has, you know, and let's. Let's look at Ronaldo's like, goal record is just.
[00:38:40] Speaker A: But if you think about where Ronaldo has gone, he's gone to.
Where's he gone? He's gone to United. He's gone to Real Madrid. He's gone to Juventus. He's gone back to United and then he's gone Saudi.
Like, he's always been in good teams that are very much built around him.
[00:39:00] Speaker B: The United team wasn't built around him. I don't know if the Real Madrid team wasn't, but he was just in a good team.
[00:39:05] Speaker A: It was.
[00:39:07] Speaker B: But I mean, you're always going to build it around the best players in. In. In some respect.
[00:39:11] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, of course. But.
But I think this. But I think this was. This was sort of the problem with like, for example, Ronaldo at Juventus. I mean, aside from the fact that he must have been on a, you know, frightening amount of money.
They were trying to build it around him, but that in itself just takes a whole load of investment because essentially over the years he just got increasingly. It's just, you know, he's in the box and when the moment comes, he will take the moment because he's less mobile, he's older, he's 41. Of course he is, you know.
[00:39:45] Speaker B: Yeah. But his Serie A stats. Yeah, so he was pretty old there. So he went to a team that weren't, I believe, that great.
[00:39:54] Speaker A: They were winning the league every year.
[00:39:57] Speaker B: Not sure there was. So he signed and they won two consecutive Serie A titles. I'll have a look. I don't think one before he scored in league, 81 goals and 16 assists in 98 appearances. I mean, that is just.
[00:40:12] Speaker A: It's. Yeah, it's good. It's good. I mean, Messi wasn't great at. In France, was he, as far as I recall? I mean, he probably. This is the thing, he probably was. And we just kind of.
He wasn't as good as he's previously been. I don't know.
But anyway, that feels like a good place to stop because I don't think we were in any position to judge. To ultimately, to really judge the merits of two of the most, you know, kind of dedicated and, you know, kind of talented athletes of.
In history.
[00:40:52] Speaker B: Yeah, I mean, some would argue that about five minutes ago would have been a good place to stop, but.
[00:40:57] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, we can like. Tom, if you think this bit doesn't work, cut this bit out.
[00:41:02] Speaker B: No, no, no, no, no. I'm fed up of your new guy and that's gonna annoy anything. Just cutting out all my golden stuff.
[00:41:08] Speaker A: What golden stuff?
[00:41:09] Speaker B: Well, I wouldn't say if it wasn't golden, surely.
[00:41:13] Speaker A: I mean, he's. He's refining your. He's refining your gold to make sure it's the actual golden nuggets rather than.
Well, I mean, mainly the swear words, but anyway.
[00:41:26] Speaker B: Right, Right. Yeah, let's finish that. So congratulations to either Argentina and Infantini or congratulations to Spain, depending on. On who won by the time this is out.
[00:41:38] Speaker A: Yeah.
So we'll be back next week. Thank you very much for listening and we'll see you in the next one.
