Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Foreign.
Welcome back to Right to the Source. My name is Robin Harrison and I'm here as ever with the Dolly Parton to my Kenny Rogers, Mr. Ed Birkin. Ed, how are you today?
[00:00:19] Speaker B: I am well, thank you.
I was about to take that because Dolly is clearly the talent, but randomly not random to me.
I've been listening to a lot of Kenny Rogers this week. Have you? Yes.
Some of his songs aren't to my taste, but got some classics. I mean the Gambly. Yes, but Coward of the county and you know their famous duet Islands in the Stream. Is that right?
Yeah, that's what it's called. I mixed up one of the words.
There it is. Yeah. Islands in the Stream.
So how many listens has Islands in the stream had on Spotify as of today?
[00:01:07] Speaker A: As of since it was first on Spotify, which imagine was a few years ago.
[00:01:12] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:01:13] Speaker A: Must be in the billions.
[00:01:15] Speaker B: I think 600 million. I mean that could be downloads or lists, but he has 11.7 million monthly listeners. Kenny Rogers, which means that 11.600 million numbers possibly wrong anyway.
[00:01:31] Speaker A: And.
[00:01:31] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:01:32] Speaker A: What's the most listened to artists on Spotify?
[00:01:35] Speaker B: Well, I don't know how many on Kenny Rogers.
So Islands in the Stream has had more than the Gambler, but the Gambler is listed number one as the most popular Kenny Rogers song. Islands in the Stream then Coward of the County.
If I were to go on to the great Dolly Parton, what do you think her number one song is most popular?
[00:01:55] Speaker A: Julene, I will always love you and Islands in the stream.
[00:02:03] Speaker B: Jolene. Yeah. 132 million second. Nine till five.
[00:02:10] Speaker A: Oh, yeah, of course.
[00:02:11] Speaker B: Then Ireland's in the stream then I will always love you. So that came on yesterday in the office listening to as I make my team listen to absolute country radio.
[00:02:22] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:02:23] Speaker B: And I will always love you came on and Caroline turned around to me and said, you told me that every song sounds better when sung as country music.
This proves that's not true.
And I think she had a point.
[00:02:39] Speaker A: No, no, no, no.
[00:02:40] Speaker B: But you can't.
[00:02:41] Speaker A: I think the Dolly Parton version is better than the Whitney Houston one.
[00:02:45] Speaker B: It just. I just don't think it is because when it kind of like stops Whitney Houston one and then she really pumps out like you just can't replicate that. That is just like. That is just a feel good, slightly emotional.
[00:03:02] Speaker A: I'm not sure it's feel good or maybe like crying.
[00:03:04] Speaker B: It's just a powerful. Yeah, yeah.
[00:03:08] Speaker A: But I think the Dolly Parton one, it's more kind of understated and apparently Elvis really wanted that song because he was like, I want to perform this. I want to sing this to be like, my song. She was like, nope. And there was a film a few years ago.
[00:03:26] Speaker B: No offense to the King, but he. That wouldn't have gone well, I don't think. Wouldn't have suited him. I think.
[00:03:32] Speaker A: No, I can. I can kind of see it in some of his slower ones. You know, if you think of something like in the Ghetto or something like that, these kind of songs, he could. He can. He could sell them. But there was a film a few years ago about Priscilla Presley that had that tall guy. I think he's Australian. He's in loads of stuff. He's kind of tall and brooding.
I have no idea what his name is, but he was playing Elvis. And obviously, you know, at the end, Priscilla kind of pisses off because, you know, Elvis is a bit of a maniac. And at the end, they played the Dolly Parton version of I'll Always Love you. And so I. So I was just like, oh, that's quite a good song to get a vend on. You know, it's a bit sad, but apparently that was, you know, kind of deliberate because Elvis wanted that song and couldn't have it, and therefore it reflected what was going on in the film.
Okay, I'm not sure if that's pathetic fallacy, but it might be.
[00:04:32] Speaker B: Well, I mean, we've gone somewhere that I wasn't expecting, but. Yeah, Yeah.
[00:04:37] Speaker A: I mean, Penny and Dolly, that's kind of par for the course, isn't it?
Should probably talk about something to do with gambling. Should we talk about the Netherlands?
[00:04:46] Speaker B: Well, but before that, I would just want to say to you, let me be the first to congratulate you on a great event at IGB Live.
[00:04:54] Speaker A: Oh, thank you.
[00:04:56] Speaker B: Now, I. I know that we've recorded this before IGB Live, but I'm just assuming that you won't get around to putting out till afterwards. So I just want to say it was fantastic. And if there are further delays, I want to say ICE 2027 has also been amazing.
So, you know, well done, Robin.
[00:05:12] Speaker A: What a G2E we had in 2028.
[00:05:17] Speaker B: I mean, that's an interesting one. G2E. I mean, I won't be going because they've clashed it with sbc. Sbc. I mean, to be honest, I'm. I went last year. It's not.
I think there. There's better events, but it's different, you know, it's very. The U. The U.S. is very U.S. focused. Yeah. So it's going to be. So for me, maybe that's not quite relevant. So for other US people it could be an amazing event. But for someone who looks internationally, to me, it was no. A no brainer to be going to SBC Lisbon.
That as I've said before, you know, I don't think all events are great and there's many that I don't go to and some I go to that I wish I hadn't. But SBC Lisbon last year was very good. So I'm looking forward to that one.
[00:06:00] Speaker A: Okay, that's good to know.
[00:06:01] Speaker B: But not, not, not G2E, I'm not going to miss.
I'm not going to view that as a missed one.
But anyway, Netherlands.
[00:06:09] Speaker A: Anyway. Yeah, Netherlands. Obviously it's raised. It raised its gambling tax in two phases. Second jump came in this year.
How do you think they're doing in terms of getting all that new tax?
[00:06:26] Speaker B: Well, I could tell you exactly how they did in 25 and what they're projected to do in 2026 because I read an IGB article. So why don't you give some numbers for once?
[00:06:37] Speaker A: Okay, I will give some numbers. So they, the Dutch treasury predicted that they can phase like kind of introduction would generate an additional 108 million euros in 2025 and an additional 216 million euros in 2026.
However, reality hit and according to the can spell authoritate, it generated an extra 2 million in 2025 and that will increase in 2026 but to 57 million.
So basically about a quarter of what it kind of originally thought it was going to make.
[00:07:40] Speaker B: You trying to read numbers is a bit like me trying to read Chinese.
It looks as though you're having to concentrate really hard and that's like. Because I can't read Chinese, but me trying to look at Portuguese or something. No, itchy look. It is massive.
[00:07:54] Speaker A: I was trying to remember them off my head because I had been. They were staring at them balefully beforehand. So I'd try and register, maybe read them next time.
[00:08:03] Speaker B: No, it's. Yeah, it's. It's underperformed and that is being used.
You know, tax went down, let's be honest, in Q4 when it was introduced versus the prior year, the tax rate had gone up and tax take went down. And that's a great argument for the industry against tax rises. Now what no one said everyone knows. And let's be honest because we just say things how it is and not enough people listen to us for it to Matter, you know, it is not exactly because of that. Let's be fair.
[00:08:36] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:08:36] Speaker B: The deposit limits came in which have had a material impact on the industry.
So if they hadn't have come in then tax rates, so tax take in my view probably wouldn't have gone down but it probably wouldn't have gone up either. You know, so increasing the tax rate would have led to still more people going offshore. Wouldn't have generated any more tax revenue.
It's clearly would have a bad thing to do. But let's, let's not pretend that the deposit limits didn't have any impact.
On the flip side, the tax rate is actually having a more material impact on the land based business in some ways.
In your article looks like.
Was it in your article or was it, was it Claude that I got to translate it for me. Anyway, it's saying that 11 decline in land based visitors in arcades in Q1.
You know, Jax and Fairplay have come out and said one of the, the main reason for them shutting gaming arcades is the increase in tax rate.
A lot of people could say is it a bad thing there's fewer land, you know, arcade machines.
Depends where you sit on that. But you know, it without doubt the increase in tax has had an adverse impact on the land based market. It's had an adverse impact on the onshore online market.
It's definitely had an adverse impact on channelization which therefore you would say on player protection. And it hasn't delivered the benefits that was projected in terms of revenue generation.
[00:10:13] Speaker A: Absolutely not.
So tax rises don't work.
Don't, don't, don't tell the, don't tell
[00:10:22] Speaker B: the UK government that, you know, they've got more to come anyway.
Well, yeah, that's the Netherlands. That's another on the Netherlands as well. Just to throw it out there. So I've been, you know, squirreling away. That's the word. Yeah.
[00:10:37] Speaker A: Well squirrelings like when you're kind of storing stuff.
[00:10:40] Speaker B: Yeah, I haven't been doing that. I've just been working away. What's the word?
[00:10:47] Speaker A: Beavering away.
[00:10:48] Speaker B: Beavering away, yes.
[00:10:50] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:10:53] Speaker B: And you know, managed to get hold of actual accounts for 85 of the online market.
So that's updated which are now available to subscribers and updated on market share materially. And this, there's some pretty interesting differences in terms of what we, we had actually anticipated before.
[00:11:14] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:11:15] Speaker B: And it also then shows some of the differences in player value across operators. So if you're measuring their web traffic against their actual GGR and then the impact on what these player deposits have had. So Unibet, which was the market leader, had higher value players probably from their pre regulation time.
And as you can see in their results, they have been more impacted in terms of revenue declines year on year with the deposit limit change than the Dutch lottery, which is a lottery you'd expect to have more casual players and they've had a lower impact and they've actually now overtaken as the market leader, which is pretty extraordinary to have a lottery as a commercial market leader. So there's some interesting stats that can be pulled out of that, but you know, stats for subscribers. We've been doing a little analysis on the World cup on prediction markets.
[00:12:12] Speaker A: Nice segue.
[00:12:13] Speaker B: This is, you know, there's different dashboards that are available on June and you know, some of them put together by others. So you take with a pinch of salt.
But based on what we believe is, you know, the right numbers, what do you think the highest volume market in USD terms is in terms of like winning, not winning the World Cup? What?
[00:12:41] Speaker A: The highest volume market.
I mean based on that segue, it kind of suggests you're going to say the Netherlands,
[00:12:50] Speaker B: Dr. Congo.
There is more volume on the Dr. Congo not to win the World cup than on any other market at the moment.
Now in fairness, there's not loads of. I mean there's a lot of bets, so there's more bets on other ones. But some, by the looks of it, there's some people who've put some big bets on VR. Congo not winning. Yeah. Okay. So I mean it's all pretty low margin actually. This is good. I didn't see this.
[00:13:18] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:13:18] Speaker B: Hayden, Hayden had ran this for me and my team. So second most of not winning is USA and third is Scotland is the third most backed team to not win the World Cup.
[00:13:35] Speaker A: I mean I think they might, they might have something there.
[00:13:39] Speaker B: Yeah.
On the winner side, the most backed team to win.
[00:13:47] Speaker A: France.
[00:13:47] Speaker B: Yeah. Then Spain and then Portugal.
Now. Yeah, now final part on it. Individual match level.
Brazil v Morocco generated the highest amount of losing trades followed by Portugal, Dr. Congo, Netherlands, Japan, Belgium, Iran, Spain, Cape Verde.
What did all of those matches have in common?
[00:14:10] Speaker A: Run through the matches again.
[00:14:13] Speaker B: Brazil v Morocco, Portugal v Dr. Congo, Netherlands, Japan, Belgium, Iran and Spain Capo
[00:14:20] Speaker A: Verde, they were all draws correct.
[00:14:25] Speaker B: So while this minute had the highest losing trades for people on the prediction markets draws the results that typically favor traditional sportsbooks.
And based on that very small piece of data and extrapolating it wildly, it looks as though that could potentially be quite a lucrative start. Considering some of those, I mean especially Spain, Cape Verde. Yeah. You would have expected people lumping on Spain.
[00:14:50] Speaker A: Yeah. So Interestingly in the 2010, I think it was 2010 World cup new Zealand were the only team to go through the tournament unbeaten.
Okay.
They did go out in the first round but they did not lose a game.
[00:15:09] Speaker B: I think we've done pretty well. So five minutes on, on. On Dolly and Kenny. Five minutes on Netherlands. Five minutes on the World Cup.
Next Ireland.
[00:15:21] Speaker A: Ireland.
[00:15:22] Speaker B: Teams that didn't qualify.
[00:15:25] Speaker A: No they didn't. Yeah, you're on the money there.
[00:15:28] Speaker B: So they are about to do licensing under the new regulator Grai Gray. Gray as of July
[00:15:42] Speaker A: 1st of July, what proportion.
[00:15:46] Speaker B: Sorry. Let's think about when this be out. They have just issued new licenses on the 1st of July two months ago
[00:15:53] Speaker A: on the 1st of July.
[00:15:56] Speaker B: So how much of the mark. So let's be honest, sports betting is already licensed there online. Yeah, just a regulator.
So how much of the Irish market is online market is currently on shore
[00:16:14] Speaker A: for igaming for all products. Because it was just igaming then none of it because it's not licensed.
[00:16:21] Speaker B: Exactly.
So that's the thing. So let's.
[00:16:25] Speaker A: You're trying to trick me there.
[00:16:26] Speaker B: Let's just try not trick you. Enlighten the audience which you have done for me.
So at the moment HD's data shows that we estimate 90% of online betting is onshore.
89% this year, but only 35% of the total market. Because as you correctly say, all gaming is offshore. Yeah. And because of that quite frankly the regulator doesn't know what size the market is.
[00:17:03] Speaker A: Would H2 happen to have any.
[00:17:06] Speaker B: Well we have a guesstimate a best estimate. So a basic that is very different to what the on. So if we look at the those operators who are currently onshore their proportion of gaming is going to be a lot lower than what the offshore market is.
Because a lot of the offshore market is very our gaming focused.
[00:17:34] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah. Me sense.
[00:17:37] Speaker B: So we will. And you will still when you have regulation you will still have some I gaming focused players come on shore. But the channelization for betting is still going to remain, you know, above that of I gaming. Okay so at the moment we have onshore betting at in 2026470 million GGM and another 56 million in in offshore. So total 400525 million.
But we have this year 830 million in in online gaming. So online gaming is the biggest part of the market.
Even though I appreciate that if you're Looking and standalone basis.
I don't have it in front of me in all our statistics, but we've worked out what we estimate the gaming part of the licensed sportsbooks is, which is a lower share. Yeah. So some of that will come on the market. So let's look two years out, we think 20, let's say 2028, first full year of regulation.
75% of the gaming market will be on shore, 82% of the overall market. But it'd be interesting to see because say we don't.
No one knows really exactly what the size of the igaming market is in Ireland, but we say we have a best estimate. So this year, 1.4, 1.35 billion total market and clearly got this licensing. But then next year you're going to have the I gaming licensing. So they're taking it slow. Yeah, but it's best to get it right, quite frankly. And the market's been operating in this way for a number of years.
[00:19:15] Speaker A: Yeah, it's been a long old process, this. It's taken long, a long, long while to get here.
[00:19:24] Speaker B: But yeah, that's, that's, that's. I think my news for the.
What are the data we've been doing this week, which will obviously be out of date by the time this comes out? Yeah, I mean, I think they're the main ones, really. What, what else is on your, your website?
What's come to your attention, Robin? What are you, in fact, what are you most excited about IGB Live? And then we can just work out whether it's been success. Because there's a big African part, isn't there?
[00:19:51] Speaker A: Yeah, so we have the Africa Summit. So that, like, honestly, I mean, I think that is possibly the most exciting thing because obviously it's very new for us.
Like, obviously we had the ice Africa way back when, but it's the first time we've done these, this kind of focus summit at a IGB Live.
So we've got a lot of regulators. We've got regulators from Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, Malawi, Uganda, Ghana, Angola, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of Congo, future World cup winners, Rwanda, regulators, head of the regulatory authority or the body responsible from all of those markets coming.
So look, I mean, one thing that was very clear from speaking to people in the industry is that they want to speak to the regulators.
We've brought the regulators.
[00:20:49] Speaker B: Okay, well, I'm doing, I'm moderating a panel on tax. And yeah, the problem with a lot of panels, I think is that it's all just, you know, ask an easy question. Someone, you know, smashes it away with a, you know, standard industry wants to hear response.
[00:21:05] Speaker A: I thought you were gonna say croquet mallet there and I'm not sure why
[00:21:10] Speaker B: next person does, you know the same. And it's pretty. If someone tossed a ball up to you, it's pretty hard to hit with a croquet mallet. They're pretty heavily weighted at the base. Are they easy to swing? I don't think.
[00:21:24] Speaker A: Would it surprise you to learn that I've never played croquet?
[00:21:28] Speaker B: It would you come across as like say a champagne socialist, like you know, a champagne Scottish. Ist.
[00:21:39] Speaker A: Champagne Scottishist. A kind of. Brian.
[00:21:42] Speaker B: Wouldn't surprise me if through your networking you'd ended up at, you know, some I gaming drinks at Somerset House and they had a croquet lawn and you thought, oh, follow, I'll give it a go because I've never done it. See what these, you know, high class ponce English people do and just have.
[00:22:02] Speaker A: I mean that's all English people to
[00:22:03] Speaker B: me anyway, nothing about croquet. So yeah, you could do that scrap and just chuck them something easy or you know, ask the question. That is interesting that everyone knows. So everyone knows that a significant part. Yeah, I'm feeling carefully about how much significant part of the gambling industry in Africa does not pay the tax that they should be paying by legislation. Okay.
[00:22:39] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:22:40] Speaker B: And that's been putting some regulator reports and you just, I mean you just know that effective operators can't make money on some how tax is set out in some markets. It's just impossible. So yeah, you know, it's okay.
So you know, but some operators who are. And you know, they won't go into certain markets because they say we pay all our tax in markets we go to and that is just not possible to operate in that market if you do so. So we're not in it.
So clearly they are going to be saying the tax rates are wrong and we need lower tax and blah, blah, blah.
But actually, you know, is a question around, should operators be paying all the tax?
Because I think one of the reason that Africa's got this terrible, generally terrible taxation system. Yeah.
[00:23:34] Speaker A: South African markets, Africa is obviously a continent, not a market.
[00:23:41] Speaker B: You know, some, you know, Nigeria, South Africa side, etc, which were better.
But they look at other countries and go, you know, Kenya, okay, yes, you had some issues but generally still pretty thriving market, very punitive tax rates. And they go, well we should do that. And so they're not showing. We're talking about Netherlands and we're pointing to the fact that they've increased the tax rate and it's had a really adverse impact on the market.
Whereas you're looking at other African markets and you go, well, that market works with those ridiculous tax rates.
So then they just go, well, we'll do those tax rates.
And so they're not actually showing that these markets can't work with the headline tax rates because they're just not paying them. And I think that puts it in a difficult position because they're not able to prove the adverse impact of those tax rates because they're not happening in practice.
That's a deep thought and probably one I need to make more succinct if I turn it into any kind of question.
[00:24:48] Speaker A: Yeah, I mean, I think if you do that on the panel, that'll be half your time on stage.
[00:24:54] Speaker B: Okay. Now Africa, I think that's going to be.
[00:24:56] Speaker A: Yeah, Africa. I think the M A summit will be really interesting again, something very new.
Look, we, we obviously moved IGB Live to London. That coincided with, you know, a period of difficulty for the UK market. But I think, but I mean, let's be honest, people always, you know, we moved it from Amsterdam, another market that is going through difficulty. It's not just about that actual market, it's what the city actually has. When you think about London, about that, you know, that financial infrastructure, it's a perfect place for an M and A summit. So very excited about that. The startup content I always think is really, really strong.
Like it's just, it's just kind of interesting. It's quite refreshing. You get to meet and to see a whole load of new people doing various things and the room is always an interesting mix of kind of like the lifers and these up and coming companies. So it's really good kind of mix of people and I think the trend stage is going to be really good. Now obviously we've got our kind of content OS product kind of coming out of, you know, the digital proposition.
But we're, you know, part of that content OS offering more can be found in the IGB website is, you know, kind of almost like a trend section. So we're almost kind of like sharing the brand with that, you know, which I think is quite, you know, just quite a nice little thing to do. So look, I mean, I know that's very content heavy. Like of course there's going to be a lot of other cool shit going on. Like the show floor is always kind of really lively. You know, I should be executive. The lounge is always incred, you Know, incredibly popular.
[00:26:43] Speaker B: There's a tattooist again, isn't there?
[00:26:46] Speaker A: Is there?
[00:26:47] Speaker B: I believe so. Because one of your colleagues was like, oh, we can get tattoos. I was like, absolutely not.
[00:26:54] Speaker A: Oh, you absolutely should.
[00:26:55] Speaker B: No.
[00:26:56] Speaker A: Do you want to get.
[00:26:57] Speaker B: Kim Kardashian asked about tattoos, and she said, why would you put a bumper stick on Alexis?
[00:27:03] Speaker A: Right.
[00:27:04] Speaker B: What tattoo am I gonna get?
[00:27:07] Speaker A: A. You could get one of a number of a robin.
[00:27:11] Speaker B: I could get a little robin just on the side of the bicep. A little robin.
[00:27:15] Speaker A: Or you could get an H in one bicep and a 2 in the other.
[00:27:21] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:27:22] Speaker A: And then whenever someone asks, who do you work for? You could then just.
[00:27:26] Speaker B: Oh, I see. Yeah, yeah.
[00:27:29] Speaker A: Like it.
Yeah, yeah. You could get.
What else could you get? Get a caipirinha.
Like a little. Little picture of a caipirinha.
[00:27:41] Speaker B: I think if anyone had a picture of a caipirinha on them, you just look at them and mock them relentlessly.
But, hey, that's just my view
[00:27:55] Speaker A: now,
[00:27:57] Speaker B: that I was gonna go somewhere with this.
No, it's okay. So you got tattoo. Oh, that was it. Going back to the lifers. So you're talking about the lifers in the room.
Is there a hall of fame in the gambling industry?
[00:28:12] Speaker A: There are many. There are many kind of variants. There's many sort of influential lists, perhaps too many. G2E has a Hall of Fame. I think AGM has a Hall of fame. It has kind of awards recognizing service.
There's always room for one more, isn't there?
[00:28:32] Speaker B: I didn't know if Clarin's position is like, you know, the kind of leading show, etc. You know, maybe you should do a hall of fame and, you know, I think you need to have various, you know, segments of it.
And just saying, if there's room for industry commentator, you know, feel free, kind of you.
[00:28:55] Speaker A: But. But I wouldn't. I wouldn't put myself in. I wouldn't put myself in the hall of fame.
[00:29:01] Speaker B: Well, no, obviously not.
[00:29:04] Speaker A: Well, then why. Why you saying that? Why. Why you.
Let. Let the.
[00:29:08] Speaker B: Let the listeners decide.
[00:29:11] Speaker A: Let the listeners decide.
[00:29:14] Speaker B: Anyway, I feel we're losing steam. What else is there to talk? I think that's it. I think we're just getting ready for igb. Igb.
[00:29:20] Speaker A: We're getting ready for igb and then whatever comes out of that. Yeah, so. Yeah. So look, everybody, thanks for listening and. Yeah, it's been fun.
[00:29:32] Speaker B: Well, look, we're. We're having. Obviously we're not going to do anything, you know, because of IGB and everything. So we're having a little break, but I just want to very quickly say a little something.
[00:29:47] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:29:47] Speaker B: If I should stay, I would only be in your way.
So I'll go, But I know I'll think of you every step of the way, and I will always love you.
Not even going to try and get to the next bit, but hauntingly beautiful.
Did Dolly Parton write it? Initially, yes. It says the bomb songwriter, Dolly Parton. Okay.
[00:30:15] Speaker A: Yes.
[00:30:16] Speaker B: Well, look, Whitney, Dolly, I think you both sung it more beautifully than I did.
[00:30:24] Speaker A: I don't think anyone will disagree with that.
[00:30:27] Speaker B: Okay. Well, Robin, I hope life treats you kind, and I hope you've had all you've dreamed of. And I wish you joy and happiness. But above all this, I wish you love.
And on that note, you can find us on.
[00:30:42] Speaker A: You can find us on YouTube, you can find us on Spotify, you can find us on Apple podcasts, and you can find us, as ever, on our spiritual home, igamingbusiness.com and you know what, Robin?
[00:30:58] Speaker B: Some people get upset by saying I will always love you and not hearing it back.
But I know that you said it first in the last episode by calling me your Superman.
And you my lip.
Right to igb.
