Episode Transcript
[00:00:15] Speaker A: Hello, everybody. Welcome back to Right to the Source. It has been a while since we last did an episode, so we are delighted to be back with you. My name is Robin Harrison and I'm here, as ever, with the Vincent Vega to my Jules Winfield, Mr. Ed Birkin. Ed, how are you doing? And what film am I referring to?
[00:00:35] Speaker B: Vincent Vega to someone. Because I miss the podcast. Not miss this bit so much.
It sounds American.
Sounds like a gangster one with some Italian names I don't recognize.
Good fellas.
Not good fellas, you know, no coming out of my misery.
[00:00:54] Speaker A: Well, it came out just before Casino, but after Goodfellas. So you're looking around 1994.
[00:01:00] Speaker B: 94. 94. That was probably around the time of Home Alone 2.
[00:01:04] Speaker A: I reckon Home Alone 2 was about 1991.
[00:01:07] Speaker B: Okay. The fact you know that is slightly worrying. Go on, tell me.
[00:01:11] Speaker A: Hey, that was Samuel L. Jackson and John Travolta and Pulp Fiction.
Yeah, okay. Yeah.
[00:01:22] Speaker B: Fact about Samuel L. Jackson, he is the highest. His films, the films he's been in are the highest. Makes him the highest grossing actor of all time. Not highest paid, but he's the highest grossing.
[00:01:34] Speaker A: So funnily enough, I can't remember, he's
[00:01:38] Speaker B: been in all Marvel stuff as well. And he was in Star wars that for some reason people seem to enjoy and other stuff like that.
[00:01:46] Speaker A: So this is a strange one. I can't remember how this came up over the weekend, but as of 2024, the fourth highest grossing actor of all time was a guy called Frank Welker. And he basically does animal noises.
[00:02:01] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:02:02] Speaker A: So he's been in loads of stuff, but basically making animal noises. So if we go down to his filmography, just to give you an idea of what he's done, he made monkey noises in Raiders of the Lost Ark. He was the voice of the dog in Cujo. He made the gremlins noises and. Gremlins.
[00:02:29] Speaker B: What's his name?
[00:02:31] Speaker A: Frank Welker. Seriously?
[00:02:34] Speaker B: Oh, I was looking at. Apparently his top grossing film was Transformers Dark of the Moon.
[00:02:42] Speaker A: I thought you would have seen that. He was the voice of Godzilla in the 1998 Godzilla film with Matthew Broderick in the soundtrack by Jamiroqua. Okay.
[00:02:52] Speaker B: Now, I started watching Transformers randomly last month.
[00:02:56] Speaker A: Yes. Because I'd love to have a.
Yeah,
[00:03:00] Speaker B: I'd love to have a car that turns into a robot.
[00:03:02] Speaker A: But anyway, I mean, I think most of us would. I have never actually seen the Transformers films. I have been trying to show my daughter the Star wars films. She wasn't that interested. She decided that she she pointed at Yoda and said, baba, which I don't, I don't think that kind of reflects Yoda's gravitas. But look, it was Star wars issue.
End of Star wars is not Star Wars.
[00:03:28] Speaker B: We're not even going to get into this Star wars is shit. It shouldn't be watched by kids or men or whatever. You go to your Trekkie thing or a Star wars thing or whatever. It's all the same. And Star Wars, Star wars is great.
[00:03:42] Speaker A: The three films, New Hope, Empire Strikes Back, Return the Jedi. Brilliant.
Literally.
[00:03:48] Speaker B: The cat couldn't care. Like, have less interest in this conversation because you entered my mind and I didn't even care about it, man.
[00:03:55] Speaker A: Who watches Transformers and looks upon it and says, okay, okay, I could do with a car like that. That turns out.
[00:04:03] Speaker B: I'll tell you what, Optimus prime would take down Yoda. Do one. Right.
[00:04:07] Speaker A: He's very big. Yeah.
[00:04:09] Speaker B: We have a lot to talk about. We've lots to talk about.
[00:04:11] Speaker A: Yes, we have. Because it has been a while. It's been a while. So where do you want to start?
[00:04:16] Speaker B: I would like to start. You know how the Netherlands and black market was what we kind of talked about a lot last year? Yeah. I think this is going to be prediction markets because they're really getting on my titties, if we can say that. So I made a prediction when we did the podcast that they would be outlawed this year. I don't think that's going to happen, but I am doubling down on the fact I just don't see them surviving despite all this more money being poured into them and how positive everyone is about them. I think they're just beyond ridiculous. This. I'll go three things and I haven't worked this out yet. They are one, let's just clarify again, they are not innovative or new. They are a betting exchange with some fancy UX on it that are only able to find a, A, a home in states where betting is not legal. So there's completely skirting all laws to do with betting and paspa, the whole reason you have a sports wagering industry and they're allowing people who are below the legal age of betting. So I think when you're 18 rather than 21, and as far as I'm aware, there aren't any integrity agreements with leagues or anything like that.
[00:05:24] Speaker A: I think that is, that is the ultimate Achilles heel of these things.
[00:05:30] Speaker B: And they make, according to Financial Times article, they're making, you know, 90% of their revenues from sports betting. So all this other stuff I then saw they're looking to go into Latin America where they reckon it's like five times the size of the us. Okay, well, guess what? First of all, you're actually competing against sportsbooks so you don't have this free run at stuff. And secondly, if they think the likes of Brazil are going to allow them to do sports betting without a sports betting license, I think they're just on cloud nine. Like they. Oh, cloud cuckoo. They have no chance that they're just going to be allowed to ride roughshod over all the sports betting legislation in Brazil.
[00:06:03] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah. No, I think that's fair. I think that's fair.
Do you see a scenario where these companies reach a point and effectively pivot into traditional real money betting?
[00:06:17] Speaker B: Potentially, they could. They could do a DFS where they get a customer base and do that. But there's two other things on this, actually. So that was my first point. Second. Okay. And this is a big call. They're not as successful as people are making out.
[00:06:29] Speaker A: I think that's fair.
[00:06:30] Speaker B: I think they are actually massively underperforming and here's why. So there's all this talk. So there's something on LinkedIn and I'll go onto LinkedIn in a minute because it's now turned into something which I. It's like Facebook but even worse. But I've kind of got drawn into it, so there's something there. So, you know, by the end of the year they're going to get the volumes of, you know, be rivaling the sportsbook industry. And then someone else point out, I think Eilis pointed out, that actually you have to have a. It's four to one. If you're looking at volume, it's about four times the volume for handle conversion. So if we look at the super bowl, which for a lot of people without the Jags in there, clearly wasn't that interesting.
[00:07:06] Speaker A: Yeah, of course. I mean, I would have watched it if the Jags had been in.
[00:07:11] Speaker B: Yeah. Okay. So. So we estimated prior.
Prior to the super bowl that they were going to make, what do we say, six. Over $600 million of volume.
And now it depends what you're doing it on. But our understanding is also 630, what we think is on the actual game. So the sports bit of the game, about 555 million dol.
So that's not including all this money that was on, you know, first advert. What, the first song of that bad Bunny. Is he whatever.
[00:07:45] Speaker A: Yeah, he seemed to. Seems to be all right.
[00:07:48] Speaker B: Never heard of him didn't know a song, but it was very colorful.
[00:07:53] Speaker A: It looked good.
[00:07:54] Speaker B: Okay, don't know. Let's focus on gambling. So I don't think you want to go down a rabbit hole of how uncool we both are where I accept it and you try and pretend you know this stuff.
[00:08:05] Speaker A: Pulp Section, Star Wars.
Yeah, let's focus on gambling.
[00:08:09] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah.
You're just like some 80s caricature, aren't you? Like wannabe cool guy anyway. Right?
[00:08:17] Speaker A: So okay, where is it? Where is this?
[00:08:23] Speaker B: So on prediction markets, first of all, by the fact that a shit ton of money was waged on stuff that was things like first song. Like all stuff that one, no one cares about and two, let's be honest, it's probably quite loose maybe so in terms of being able to find out that stuff. So it's all stuff that is potentially, you know, people have a track on. But let's focus on the sports bit before I say something litigious.
Okay, so let's say, let's say about 600 million was, was of volume was done on this. And this isn't over the course of the season on who's going to win. This is just on this game. Okay, so we reckon, and we don't have data yet, but we reckon that about 1.77 billion is going to be wa the actual super bowl by legal sports books. Okay, I know Nevada came in on a 10 year low, but that's not a good barometer. So we'll have to wait and see what happened in New York, Pennsylvania.
[00:09:13] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:09:13] Speaker B: Okay, so that would equate to them being only 8 1/2% of the size of the legal market. Okay, even, even, let's say it came in at 1.6 billion. That would put 8 1/2% of the two combined. So all these, this, these prediction markets that are going to kind of like Torpedo Fanduel DraftKings. I know they've only been going a year or so 8 1/2% of the market on this big thing. Well, about 40% of the market in the US by GDP by adults doesn't have state level sports betting, California, Texas, etc. So plus they can go into states where there is legal sports betting. Plus they've got the advantage they can get the people who are 18, 19, 20. So for them to have got a share of effectively eight and a half percent, that's, that's not great, quite frankly. I know shows there's a lot of Runway for growth, but this is, this goes against the rhetoric that you think of like they are crushing it. They're really not. And for them to be the market cap now of Kalshi is bigger than DraftKings. After they decided to give really low guidance and then justify giving low guidance because they want to beat it and effectively making up, you know, saying well we're going to get more but we want it to be lower. Like it doesn't make any sense.
[00:10:23] Speaker A: Did enjoy the earnings more right up of that today. That used the lyrics by Karma Police by Radiohead. That was very good. It is a good song and I'm, I'm, I'm impressed that you know it.
[00:10:36] Speaker B: I'm not gonna sing it. And then the third point on prediction markets which goes on to LinkedIn. Okay, right. So this guy, I'm not gonna say who it is. I don't know him personally. I'm not even, not even linked to him.
[00:10:46] Speaker A: Okay, not even linked in.
[00:10:48] Speaker B: Yeah, that as well. Okay, so he's talking about Polymarket just launched a five minute bitcoin price market. Okay, so is effectively bitcoin going to be up or down in the next five minutes? Now not only is this just absurd anyway, but this is what people, some people generally believe, okay? The quote is, this is bigger than it looks. Prediction markets aren't just gambling, they're information markets. Price aggregates, beliefs, incentives and real money in real time. No narratives, no pundits. Arguably it's a genuine signal. Pointing a mechanism at bitcoin price action for five minutes is meaningful. It turns sentiment to something fast, liquid and tradable. First of all, this is nothing new, okay? As someone else pointed out, it is effectively a binary option which although legal in the US is illegal in most regulated markets. No matter what your view on Bitcoin and I've previously bought it, previously sold it had a long term investment thesis. No one, no investment thesis can look at the price within five minutes. This is effectively a slot machine. So the idea that someone believes one, people believe this is a new thing, this is like some great invention. No, it's not. Two, that they think that people saying what's going to happen is anything investable will give a signal five minutes. It is just purely gambling and all it's going to do is make prediction markets look even worse as it just encourages people. It's effectively, it's a slot machine. It is just terrible.
[00:12:09] Speaker A: I, yeah, I would agree with you on that. I mean remember before even the rise of prediction markets. So this is going back good three years or so. I was speaking to one of the sportsbook executives at G2E and we're talking about.
It's bizarre that we had this conversation actually on reflection, considering this was before we saw prediction markets emerge, but about sports betting and sporting events as an asset class because essentially these are too short term for that to work. It's only now that it's just come back to me and suddenly realized, damn, that was actually quite prescient. But essentially with that sort of short term thing, it's, it's, it's just very difficult to parse out what is gambling and what is effectively an investment.
[00:13:02] Speaker B: I mean this is, it's not, that's clearly not an investment at all. But yeah, can I. This someone's response on this I 100% agree with.
I'm not going to say his name. Even though I think what he's saying is completely. Should I say his name? I think what he's saying is very clever. Okay. Sensible CEO of a sportsbook. Betting companies had the same product almost 20 years ago. Bet on the price of an equity or index in next 5 minutes, an exchange rate like USD, EUR, price of gold, etc. P.S. they didn't work. Let's stop this hysteria around prediction markets being anything more than traditional betting designed with an interface that has found a regulatory loophole and they're only gaining traction in the absence of other legal forms of betting. Put better than I could have put myself.
[00:13:44] Speaker A: I think I know who that is as well.
[00:13:46] Speaker B: Well, so I'm happy to. Because I think he's, he's very. Yeah, I think he's completely right.
[00:13:50] Speaker A: So.
[00:13:50] Speaker B: So they're my three things. One, that they are. Well, I think they shouldn't exist. But you know, this idea they're going to do well outside the US I think is.
It's not fun. I think it's ridiculous. Two, I actually don't think they're performing as strongly as people like to make out by looking at volumes. If you look at what share they've actually got of the market compared to what's massively open for them to take, I think they're underperforming. Arguably that means there's a lot of road for growth. And three, with all these new innovative products, again, I think they're shooting themselves in the foot. You know, you're just like college kids just betting on what's going to happen. The price of Bitcoin in the next five minutes and then people who are running funds saying this is a genuine tracker of market sentiment.
[00:14:34] Speaker A: Yeah, I think I've seen some kind of articles in the mainstream press talking about prediction markets and talking about the gamification of modern life, which is quite dystopian ultimately. And I think also until there are integrity protections, I mean, if they do act as a signal for the direction of travel of something, what if that's a geopolitical event? Like when does that potentially become like a national security risk or something? But things like that, it's, it's quite.
[00:15:10] Speaker B: We've had this in Betfair. I mean, didn't bet fair predict that Brexit was going to happen?
[00:15:14] Speaker A: I think, yeah, because I remember, I remember losing some money in that. Yeah.
[00:15:18] Speaker B: And stuff like that. And you know, I think that that was useful because I was working in the City at the time and the city had a very insular view. And you know, all these northern knuckle draggers, as they're called, and old people and, you know, you know, all that voting for. For Brexit, but, you know, they don't know anything.
[00:15:34] Speaker A: And you know, just to clarify, Edez from around the Sheffield, Derbyshire region, so insulted he's insulting.
[00:15:43] Speaker B: No, I was giving the view. The insular view of what? The city kind of view to people in the Shire.
[00:15:48] Speaker A: Okay. I thought you were rather than me. No. Yeah.
[00:15:51] Speaker B: No.
[00:15:52] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:15:52] Speaker B: I'm, I'm proud of you.
[00:15:53] Speaker A: So everyone else is setting back complacent in your setting.
[00:15:58] Speaker B: I think people just had a very insular view of everything because they were. It's in an echo chamber and they just can dismissed every, you know, what people are talking about up north or older people and all that. But anyway, so we've had all this stuff about market sentiment. It doesn't go mainstream, quite frankly. And I don't think any of this will as well. And, and I'm not going to insult, try not to insult the US here because I actually really like the US still still got plans to try and maybe move to, you know, get a little ranch in Montana or something and
[00:16:27] Speaker A: live out your Yellowstone fantasy.
[00:16:29] Speaker B: But again, when it comes to gambling and stuff like that, I think they've always been looking quite insular. And so I think there's a lot of people in the US who genuinely believe this is a new product and are just completely ignoring what happened to Betfair and what will happen to this over time. And it does have a long Runway to go. As I said, it's underpenetrated with this eight and a half percent and it's going to take years probably for court cases to go through. And these will continue to do well, and be hysteria. But I just do not see how this can work long term unless the people are running this, genuinely know this and as you say, they're just trying to get as many customers to try and pivot to getting a sports betting license. And is that the only way you can compete with DraftKings and FanDuel? By getting a head start, by getting the customer base and then pivoting? Potentially, yeah.
[00:17:16] Speaker A: It's a bold strategy for disruption, but you could argue it's. Even then it's not new because as you say, as you mentioned earlier, dfs, we saw this with dfs, but you
[00:17:27] Speaker B: know, then will, you know, licensing. I, you know, are people going to get tight on licensing or not? You know, but you know, potentially, maybe that's. Maybe that's what they're thinking long term, maybe they're not. Maybe that's just your brainchild and which I actually think is a good idea and I hadn't thought of it. But, you know, maybe they generally believe, believe the hype that this is some new innovative thing and they're worth 10 billion and now they want to be worth, you know, they're going to be 20 billion. Maybe they honestly believe they can do amazing stuff in Brazil and get around supports by legislation.
[00:17:55] Speaker A: I feel this is going to be come a recurring weekly rant.
So I'm going to change the subject to talk about Norway because, and I was thinking for a minute there, is there any way that I can make some sort of tenuous connection? But I don't think there is. So I'm just going to start talking about Norway now. So we had a piece last week also my piece of the week by Martin Bjork, one of our writers, on the current situation engulfing Norse tipping. Now there is essentially a class action lawsuit because of failings identified in the lottery system. And I think this came out last year. There were obviously fines handed down, but essentially this suit is players looking to recoup money because they think they haven't been paid out properly. Norway is an interesting one because it's the last monopoly.
[00:18:50] Speaker B: Just for our listeners who don't know, and I'm trying to wrap my brain for exact details. The thing that came out was absolutely calamitous, wasn't it? What happened exactly? Just remind people again, it was like you couldn't make it up.
[00:19:02] Speaker A: So the CEO resigned. A load of people were told that, I think it's 41,000 Norwegians were first of all told that they had one.
It was something ridiculous, something like, like vastly More than they actually had one. So I think about people were even sent a push notification saying, you have won this wild sum. Obviously that they hadn't won that. Yeah, they had not won that.
And I think they're getting fined 10 million for that. But then on top of that, basically they.
So dating back to the mid 2010s, they may have essentially skewed results and got paid out the correct amounts to players over a long period. And I think it is now. Let me just double check the figure. So I don't yet. 15,000 lottery players are looking to recoup the stakes, which are one of the largest legal actions in Norwegian history. Now, one of the things that came to mind when reading this. Now, if you think back to maybe 2020 or 2021, the good old days
[00:20:20] Speaker B: of lockdown, I miss them.
[00:20:22] Speaker A: Yeah, it was Tiger King and the other things that we watched around then. I've totally forgotten.
[00:20:29] Speaker B: Gone. Yeah.
[00:20:30] Speaker A: A. And I'm just thinking about Tiger King. Wonder what Joe Exotic's doing these days.
Around that time, Viscous in Finland was found to be. I think it was either in breach or it was contravening so many marketing laws. They shut down advertising to essentially sort out the problem and rethink how they kind of advertise. And obviously there've been issues since last year they were fined 2.9 million over various feelings related to. I think it was social media promotions. But the reason why I bring that up, that was obviously a monopoly at the time. They were resolutely. We are a monopoly and we're staying a monopoly despite. There was a survey around 2019, which it didn't seem that big a survey, but really captured the public imagination. But that 2021 incident felt like it started that was almost the first domino falling in the process towards market liberalization, because you've got an established monopoly facing a major scandal and obviously huge gray market competition. And you could argue that that affects public trust in a way that essentially undermines the position of that monopoly and that ultimately changes the mindset and pushes towards opening the market up to private competition. And when you think of this situation with Norse tipping, 15,000 players are pursuing it in this suit. I mean, that. That feels like a pretty cataclysmic loss of faith.
[00:22:07] Speaker B: Yeah, I was cautious thinking about the numbers of people.
You know, it's a bit like claims for, you know, car finance and all that. You know, is it just. You've got some sneaky Norwegian people are trying to. Lawyers trying to sign people up for a class action. It's like, oh, I played the lotteries and let's be honest, a lot of people play the lottery. So, you know, if you're saying that X percent on general of people affected by something, just chuck their name in a hat. Anyway, excuse me. Doesn't mean 15,000 have been affected. Could be much more, could be less. But I get your point.
It's a big number that is doing it.
Vik House. Okay. They may have gone against. If you're saying got five some stuff. But they've. They've always been a pretty socially responsible or sometimes overly social responsible company that's kind of held back revenues and allowed the non, say gray market, let's just say legal market, unlicensed, non locally licensed market to. To thrive in Finland. And yeah, that's moved. Norway.
[00:23:02] Speaker A: Don't know.
[00:23:03] Speaker B: They've always. They've just been very adamant about their monopoly, haven't they? And they don't. You know, I think generally they don't really believe all the numbers about the illegal market. You know, they think it's. It's lower. I mean, you had Unibet were fined, weren't they? I always found this a bit strange. So they find Unibet Common was like, let's say 1.2 million Norwegian kroner a day. But whatever it was, the numbers out there, that's what they thought that the company were making in that market. And yet the company continue to pay the fine and continue to operate. Surely that would make you think that perhaps they're making more than that. I mean, generally companies don't tend to operate at a loss. So if they're paying the fine and continuing to operate, perhaps you've misunderstimited the size of your legal market as they thought.
[00:23:47] Speaker A: I think that's fair to say.
[00:23:48] Speaker B: Yeah. Look, we've got. Yeah, I mean, so what do we have? Norway?
Blah, blah, blah. Let's do in euros. Because most people won't know what krona are.
[00:23:57] Speaker A: What's the exchange rate on the krona?
[00:24:00] Speaker B: Exchange rate is.
Yeah, 10 to the euro. No, 10 to the dollar. 10 to the euro. So euros.
I have let's say 20, 24 onshore online betting, gaming 300 million and offshore a billion. So 23% onshore as a monopoly and the biggest offshore operators being what you might term as crypto casinos. Thinking left the market following its FTJ acquisition. Not called that now.
[00:24:31] Speaker A: Are they a FDG United and kind of J United. So it's kinder, Kindred group and then FDJ United
[00:24:41] Speaker B: sounds Like a football team. Yeah. So same thing with United.
[00:24:44] Speaker A: At least it's not like Wanderers or something.
[00:24:47] Speaker B: You know, DJ Wanderers. So that I suppose.
[00:24:49] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:24:51] Speaker B: You know, does. Does issues with the lottery automatically feed through to the. But in game. I suppose if you've lost trust in the company, then it does.
[00:24:58] Speaker A: Well, I think I would argue that with the level of. I mean, scandal's not maybe the right word, but I don't even know what the right word would be. Just.
[00:25:07] Speaker B: You want to use the word incompetence, don't you?
[00:25:10] Speaker A: I may have been thinking it. I mean. Well, one of the interesting things that's come out since is there was a PwC report which essentially said that because Norse Tipping was trying to be innovative and forward looking, it wasn't focusing enough on the core system.
So it was essentially.
[00:25:29] Speaker B: How was it innovative and forward looking?
[00:25:32] Speaker A: Well, well, that is something that I would also.
I would also ask off the back of that. I'm just trying to be nice because obviously people work there, all this kind of stuff. But yeah, I mean, essentially that was him trying to be innovative and forward looking.
How much did you say onshore? 23%. 23% and a class action suit.
[00:25:56] Speaker B: I mean, in. In their defense, not for the stuff. That's the class action suits, but it's not. I mean, what do we have for Finland? 26% In Finland, I'm sure.
[00:26:05] Speaker A: Right. Because Finland always like Bikehouse tended to say it was 50% off, which, you
[00:26:12] Speaker B: know, we had that at 2020. 19. 2020. But again, it's all the rise of these.
I turn the crypto casinos. Most of it won't be done in cryptocurrency, you know, easy signups and they offer those options in between 22 and 24. We've actually just seen a big growth across Europe as a whole in the legal market. So. No, back. Back in. Yeah. When you talk about the time. Time you're referencing 2020. Yeah, it was about 50. No, it's tough, especially because Vicasts have, you know, there's mandatory player IDs and stuff like that. And when you, when you're dealing with that and you are a single operator, getting one in every pounds is not euros. It's.
It's not a bad job they're doing. I don't think you can blame them really. They claim you do what they're allowed to do. Yeah. And if they shoot some advertising and stuff, I mean. Yeah. Right. What else do you want to talk about? I've got something to talk about.
[00:27:01] Speaker A: I mean, we're coming up on time.
[00:27:03] Speaker B: Okay, well, I'll give you one. I haven't given you. I haven't given you a stat of the week, so.
[00:27:07] Speaker A: No, you haven't.
[00:27:08] Speaker B: As. As I told you, I'd kind of fallen into this LinkedIn crap.
Something.
[00:27:13] Speaker A: Are you being radicalized by social media?
[00:27:15] Speaker B: No, no, the opposite. It's just reinforcing my view of how ridiculous it all is. And people just spout crap. Now. I can't really have a go at people for saying, you know, just using it. It's one of kind of, why do people. Why do they think that other people care what they think about things? Because we're doing exact same thing on a podcast, so that'll be super hypocritical.
[00:27:34] Speaker A: I'm comfortable with being a hypocrite if you are.
[00:27:36] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah, of course I am. But there was something that was pointed out to me and it's talking about Germany. And it said Germany is quietly becoming the most interesting regulated market in Europe. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Data suggests it now leads European gaming growth while hosting a number of highest number of active brands. That alone should make policymaker pause. For years, the narrative of strict regulation would choke the market. Instead, activities reorganized and it's effectively saying that Germany is this big test for the. For the European market. Anyone still modeling Germany, like 2019 is behind strategic angle it that Germany proves a tightly controlled framework can still produce growth and other regulators will copy parts of it is becoming a reference case for what regulated Europe looks like in practice. That is all the restrictions on Germany. Yes, it is now it's a powerhouse that's just pushing ahead. And actually Europe's now going to potentially copy part of these highly restrictive elements of Germany.
[00:28:37] Speaker A: All right, so as we're coming up on time and literally two, three minutes, what the best way to articulate this is to share the figures on German.
[00:28:47] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:28:48] Speaker A: But to you, a mic drop moment.
[00:28:51] Speaker B: No, first of all, I mean, just reading that for what you know about the industry, it's something does that to you pass the sniff test of this? Okay, this is worth looking to this. Yeah, this is interesting. Or does that just seem complete?
[00:29:07] Speaker A: Having seen the figures in Germany, having spoken to the operator, having spoken to the stakeholders, that does not pass the sniff test for me.
[00:29:16] Speaker B: Okay. So I decided, as I get upset about this, I decided to do a quick bit of research.
I found that the data it's referring to that said there was 338 brands in Germany. Given there are more licenses than that in the UK then That would suggest that it cannot be the highest number of brands by any means, as a number of these licenses have multiple brands. So first of all, it's not on the maze. Secondly, I then went on to the GGL web page and looked for the licensed operators and counted the brands. So there are 92 licensed brands in the market according to the white list. So if there are 338 brands in Germany, that would suggest for maths of 338 minus 92, that 246 are unlicensed, which would mean 73% of the brands they're talking about are unlicensed. How is that in any way any even shoot of green shoot of evidence that the German market is performing well with these tight restrictions and that therefore is becoming a reference case for what regulated Europe looks like in practice. It is evidence that German regulation does not work in any way. So they've got, I assume they've just taken a, a figure of the number of brands and then just spun this to be like, oh, that's interesting. Without, without looking at all these brands are that they're licensed or not. It's just ridiculous. And it's just that this stuff just gets perpetuated. And it's someone, I'm going to call someone out here in a positive way. There's a guy called Andy Lee. Andrew Lee was my first boss in banking, as in the climb war. Then he went to William Hill. Then he went left William Hill and went back to the city for a little bit to Merrill's. Then he went to head William Hill online. Now he does some other stuff and ATT Africa and things like that. And he said to me, I think it's one of the best lines. He goes, you can be 90% right but 100% wrong, because that last 10% can make all the difference. And what's happened here is a post based on something where, okay, it doesn't have the highest number of brands, but even if it did, it's taken a big number of brands and then twisted that into an argument of why it's been, it's looking like a really successful market without working out that actually those brands aren't legal brands. And it just shows the high number of brands shows how many illegal operators are doing stuff there. And actually, rather than it being a test case for good regulation people follow is just proving it's 100% the opposite and it's bad regulation that people won't follow, shouldn't follow.
That's it.
[00:31:41] Speaker A: My thought or my punch or whatever that was.
But that is all the time we have today.
It's been really weird not having the additional background pressure of thinking, oh, shit, I've got to edit that bloody podcast and get it out each week. So I'm delighted to be back doing it.
Yeah, I just. Yeah, that's. It's tough, but doing this, I'm suddenly like, oh, yeah, I missed this.
[00:32:07] Speaker B: Can I just say as well.
[00:32:08] Speaker A: Oh, God, that.
[00:32:09] Speaker B: No, no. Well, two things. I'm glad you haven't talked about the six nations, because, quite frankly, I cannot stand the Scottish rugby team. And it was an embarrassment for England, but it was. You know what? It's difficult to say that they didn't deserve the victory performance.
[00:32:23] Speaker A: And, Russell, phenomenal.
[00:32:26] Speaker B: And also to your beloved Celtic, who are making it a very interesting title race in Scotland.
[00:32:32] Speaker A: Well done, Robin. Off the top with a game in the hand. Well done, Scottish. All right, everyone, thank you so much for listening. We'll be back next week with another episode of Right to the Source with Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin. See you next time.
